With the recorded pattern of the Atlantic hurricane season throughout years, this week is supposed to be the peak of hurricane activity. However, this year during the climatological peak season there hasn't been any of it since we have started watching it through satellite in 1966.
Calculating average through other years by mid September, a typical year would have experienced 9 storms and 4 hurricanes. The calculation of this year is total of 5 storms named Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard, the two strongest were Bertha and Edouard, topped out at 60 mph and 0 hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Edouard still buried parts of eastern Texas under two feet of rain. Arthur spun up tornadoes along the Gulf Coast back in June. Four people have died, and damage estimates already top a billion dollars all without a single hurricane on the books.
The major cause of the quiet is mainly suspected to be strengthening El Niño.
What El Niño is?
A natural climate pattern where surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, occurring every 2–7 years as part of a larger cycle called ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).
How it affects Atlantic hurricanes specifically?
El Niño increases wind shear (winds blowing at different speeds/directions at different altitudes) over the Atlantic and Caribbean. Wind shear essentially tears apart the vertical structure a tropical storm needs to organize and strengthen due to which El Niño years tend to produce quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, even as they often fuel more active Pacific hurricane seasons.
Even though September and October are recorded to usually be the most active months for hurricanes, history has also experienced late-season monsters which suggests not be relieved this quickly.
The season officially runs through November 30. As of the latest outlook, the National Hurricane Center hassn't tracked anything likely to develop in the immediate days ahead and hence, for now, the Atlantic stays quiet.
