The El Niño climate pattern has strengthened to record levels in the tropical Pacific. The unusually warm sea surface temperatures are raising concern about extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world.
Japan's Meteorological Agency reported on October 9 that the sea- surface temperature in its El Niño monitoring region was 4.0 degree celsius above normal in September. That is the highest level recorded there since observations began in 1949.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecast that the average sea-surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach about 3.7°C above normal during October to December. That would pass the earlier seasonal peak of 2.6°C, recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
The WMO expects the current event to intensify and peak around December. Its October outlook says El Niño is very likely to continue through February 2027.
Warmer Pacific waters release heat into the air, which can push up global temperatures. This adds to the long-term warming that has already raised temperatures on land and in the oceans. The effects are not the same everywhere. Some regions may face long dry spells that threaten crops, water supplies and electricity production. Others may see unusually heavy rain, which can cause floods and damage infrastructure.
Forecasts describe changes in how likely these events are. They do not mean every region will have a disaster. Local results depend on seasonal weather, geography and existing conditions. The WMO warns that a stronger event could affect economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.
What it could mean for Nepal
A strong El Niño does not automatically mean drought, floods or a failed monsoon in Nepal. The country’s weather depends on several things, including the South Asian monsoon, the Indian Ocean Dipole, regional air circulation and local geography. El Niño is one of these influences.
