Israel faced an uncertain political future on Wednesday after preliminary results from its general election left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
With 66.2 percent of ballot boxes counted by 9:20 am local time, Central Elections Committee figures put Netanyahu’s bloc at 56 seats and the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot at 48. Arab-led parties held the remaining 16 seats in that provisional distribution. A government needs the support of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset.
These are provisional bloc estimates, not certified results, and neither side has been declared the winner. Counting is continuing, including ballots in special double envelopes.
The leaders respond
Netanyahu said he wanted to form a “strong, right-wing national government” and highlighted Israel’s military achievements, but did not declare victory. His Likud party led the count among individual parties. He also raised the possibility of further joint action with US President Donald Trump against Iran. Trump, who had endorsed Netanyahu, said on Wednesday he believed the prime minister had done well.
Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, argued that voters had rejected Netanyahu remaining prime minister and called on him to leave politics. Eisenkot has also taken a hawkish line on national security and opposes Palestinian statehood, so his candidacy does not automatically signal a more conciliatory policy.
Arab-led parties
The Joint List and Ra’am, collectively projected at 16 seats, could matter because neither main bloc has enough seats to govern alone. However, a numerical majority and a workable coalition are different things. Netanyahu has ruled out a government with Arab parties, and Eisenkot has also largely ruled out a formal partnership with them.
Why the vote matters
This is Israel’s first general election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed. Issues include Netanyahu’s record on the security failures that preceded the attacks, the conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, military-service exemptions for many ultra-Orthodox men, disputes over judicial changes, and Netanyahu’s corruption trial, which he denies.
Turnout reached 77.7 percent, about 5.7 million voters, roughly seven percentage points higher than at the same stage in 2022 and the highest since 1999.
Why numbers may shift
Israel uses proportional representation with a 3.25 percent electoral threshold. In the partial count, the Reservists-Economic Party, People of Israel and Charedi Public are below it, and parties that fail to cross it win no seats, which can change how seats are distributed among qualifying lists. Double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers, prisoners, medical personnel, some voters with medical conditions and Israelis serving abroad, are counted separately. Officials have warned that high turnout could mean more of them and delays. The committee’s timetable sets November 4 as the deadline for publishing the official results.
What happens next
Coalition bargaining follows. President Isaac Herzog will consult parties and choose the member of the Knesset with the best chance of forming a government, who need not lead the largest party. That candidate ordinarily has 28 days, extendable by up to 14, to build a coalition, which the Knesset must then approve. If it fails, another candidate may be tried, and a fresh election could eventually become necessary. Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity meanwhile.
Market reaction
The shekel weakened about 0.7 percent against the dollar in morning trading to NIS 3.0765 amid the uncertainty. This is a short-term move, not evidence of a lasting trend. The election alone does not establish any change in Israel’s policy towards Gaza, Lebanon, Iran or the Palestinians, which would depend on the eventual government.
