Farmers are busy cutting, carrying and drying paddy at the same time that rai is forecast. A spell of wet weather is expected across parts of Nepal from October 28 to November 1, and a Bay of Bengal weather system is the cause. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) says the heaviest part is likely from Thursday night, October 29, to Saturday, October 31.
What the advisory says
On October 27, the Agriculture Development Office in Dhading advised farmers to decide when to harvest based on local weather. The advice covers four situations:
- Ripe paddy: harvest it promptly if it can be cut and stored safely before the rain. If it cannot. , wait until after November 1.
- Cut paddy: move it into safe storage quickly. keep it above the ground in a dry place so it does not sit in water.
- Standing fields: dig drains or channels to take away excess water, especially where the crop is not yet ready.
- Flattened plants: where wind or rain has knocked the crop down, gather or prop it up if possible.
This was a local advisory, not a nationwide order, and it was issued on October 27. Farmers who could not harvest then do not have to cut everything at once.
The weather
The DHM expects more cloud on Wednesday, with possible light rain or snow in some mountain areas.
The system should begin to affect Nepal more clearly from Thursday. On Friday and Saturday some areas could see moderate to heavy rain, thunderstorms and strong winds. The India Meteorological Department forecast Cyclone Arnab to come ashore on India’s Andhra Pradesh coast early on October 28, and Nepali meteorologists link it to the unsettled weather here. The cyclone’s strong coastal winds will not reach Nepal in that form. Rain is expected to be most widespread in Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki and parts of Lumbini. Some places in Karnali and Sudurpashchim may also get rain, though less.
A preliminary analysis by Tribhuvan University associate professor Binod Pokharel suggested some places could get more than 150 millimetres between October 29 and November 1, and named 29 districts as at higher risk.
What rain does to paddy
- Standing paddy can be flattened by wind and rain, which makes it harder to harvest in a muddy or flooded field.
- Cut paddy can be soaked or washed away, and grain left wet for long can sprout and lose quality.
- Drying can be interrupted, and farmers may pay more for transport, handling and drying.
- Straw, which feeds livestock, loses value if it stays soaked.
How bad it gets depends on rainfall intensity and duration, drainage, how ripe the crop is and how fast cut grain is protected.
Losses are not hypothetical
Earlier October storms already damaged crops in western Nepal. In Kailali, with about 65,000 hectares of paddy, the Agriculture Knowledge Centre said output could drop 5% to 7%. Badhaiyatal Rural Municipality in Bardiya estimated about Rs 50 million in damage and about 500 hectares lost. Officers in Bansgadhi and Gulariya each put paddy losses at about 10%, with about 150 hectares inundated in Gulariya. Farmers in Kailali described cut rice lying under floodwater for three days until it sprouted and the straw was unusable. In Dang, heavy rain and wind flattened nearly ripe paddy.
Why this harvest matters
Paddy is Nepal’s main cereal and a major source of food and income for rural families.
The last completed crop fell: production was about 5.71 million tonnes, down about 4.2% from about 5.96 million tonnes, or roughly 250,000 tonnes less. Cultivated area fell from 1,420,636 to 1,376,872 hectares. The reasons given were a smaller planted area and drought or poor rain during planting, especially in parts of Madhesh.
For the current crop, the Department of Agriculture reported on August 22 that transplanting was about 98% complete, at 1,341,764 hectares. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in August that the 2026 crop outlook was uncertain, with dry June weather slowing planting in some areas, and that harvest-season weather would matter.
What farmers can do
- Get cut grain under cover and away from floodwater.
- Drain fields with standing water.
- Keep grain on dry, raised ground.
- Check the latest forecast and local advice before cutting.
